Long years ago, in their remarkable little book meant for the American public who were fighting the Second World War, titled The Making of Modern China, W.W.Norton, 1944, Owen and Eleanor Lattimore, an American couple, said a number of things on China which are still of interest today.
As to where China is located, they said, 'Peiping(Beijing) stands almost exactly on latitude forty north while New York stands just a little above it. From Peiping to China's westernmost frontiers is about as far as it is from New York to Oregon.'
On what kind of people they are, the Owens said, 'they are much more like us than we have been led to suppose, certainly much more like us than the Japanese'. They also said, 'The typical Chinese is honest.'. This was the time when 'More than eighty per cent of the Chinese people are farmers.'
They also pointed out,'Men who laugh at the same things are not apt to misunderstand each other. The typical Chinese has a very keen sense of humor and one much nearer to the American sense of humor than that of many other peoples.', and 'The typical Chinese is naturally democratic, and in this he is as much like most Americans as he is unlike most Japanese.'
The next is rather long but maybe crucial in understanding the relation of China, Taiwan and overseas Chinese. 'There is no other group in the world that combines, as the Chinese do, vast numbers and a high degree of both physical and cultural uniformity. This is explained by a Chinese attitude for which Confucius found a formula many centuries ago: "Let those who wear the costume of the barbarians be barbarians; those who wear the costume of the Chinese, be Chinese."
The revised edition of the book, titled China:A Short History, was out in 1947 from the same publishers. The above quotations are from the first edition as I am not in a position to consult the new one. We have, however, a Japanese translation of the revised, and judging from it the portions quoted have been in tact in the revised edition as well.
Owen Lattimore(1900-89) was a scholar of long experience with China, who proposed the concept of 'Inner Asia', and reconstructed the whole history of China from the point of view of perpetual interaction between the 'China proper' and the 'Inner Asia' or China's frontiers. I think that, though China has been very much urbanized by now, as was discussed in the previous column, what the Lattimores said about the Chinese and Americans being similar and not apt to misunderstand each other has not lost its meaning altogether.
If so, there is every reason why these two countries should cooperate to dispel the misunderstanding that has been mounting for several decades by now, which has been politically formed in the process called the Cold War.
If the US looks at China as a hypothetical enemy, it will inevitably have enormous impact on Japan, which has suffered a lot because of the triple disaster in 2011, on top of being in a state of depression for more than 20 years, and about which it is becoming common to talk about the lost decade(s).
If Japan is more independent-minded, as many Japanese strongly wish, she will be able to do a lot to bring China and the US closer. Normalizing relations with DPRK, making relations with the US less military-oriented, assisting the emerging countries on the grass-roots level instead of large-scale engineering level, drastically cutting the warming gas emission combined with persuading the two powers to come and join the global framework are some of the possible measures in that direction.
For the immediate future, however, we will make more of a tool in the new US Military Review. China's, or for that matter also DPRK's, possible military adventurism, shown, for example, in China's construction of the carrier fleet, will unfortunately help this way.
We will further discuss the problem of the US Marines at Okinawa islands in a little more depth.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Urban Population in China and India
China has made it clear on 17 January that her urban population has for the first time overtaken the rural population during 2011. In absolute figures, her urban population as of the year end was 690.79 million, the rural population was 656.56 million, making the total 1347.35 million. The annual increase was 6.44 million, and the proportion of the urban population was 51%.
The BBC reporter who broadcast the news also said that now that the major population movement had been over in China, the next such movement would be seen in India. Is it true? Or rather, it must be true, but on what scale?
It used to be said for some time that India's population was increasing at the ratio of 2% per annum, but her urban population was increasing at 3%, that of her large cities at 4%, and of urban slums at 5%. As far as the total population was concerned, however, the ratio is now down to 1.54%(2008). But that is still about three times higher than in China. At the present ratio India's population, which was 1210 million according to the Census taken early in 2011, will catch up with China's somewhat earlier than is usually expected, around 2022, which is only a decade afterwards.
Putting aside the present ratio of 1.54% for the moment, and if we apply the 17.6% at which India' population increased over the decade 2001 to 2011 to the next decade also, we get 1423.15 million as the figure for 2021, the time of her next Census. In 2011 the ratio of her urban population was 31%, which was 375.1 million, about half that of China's. If 31% still applies in 2021, which is of course doubtful and there are all the reasons to anticipate that it will come closer to China's 51%, we will come to the conclusion that India will have 66 million more of urban population by 2021. It is a very conservative estimate. But even this will be an enormous burden on the existing urban infrastructure and employment opportunities.
Would it be possible to consider where are they likely to come from, and where are they lilely to be?
Yes, when those parts of the Census data are made public, which show the ratio of urban migration to the population increase State-wise, or growth of the major cities, over the past decade, we will be able to discuss those matters. We may also be able to consider the 'push' and 'pull' factors in their latest phase.
What would be important now, however, is to follow Mahatma Gandhi, who repeatedly said that under the British rule the villages were supporting the cities, but in independent India it should be the other way round. In doing so we need not give heed to those of his ideas which are clearly out-dated, like the closed 'village republics', and take only those which are more progressive and benefitting to the rural poor.
The BBC reporter who broadcast the news also said that now that the major population movement had been over in China, the next such movement would be seen in India. Is it true? Or rather, it must be true, but on what scale?
It used to be said for some time that India's population was increasing at the ratio of 2% per annum, but her urban population was increasing at 3%, that of her large cities at 4%, and of urban slums at 5%. As far as the total population was concerned, however, the ratio is now down to 1.54%(2008). But that is still about three times higher than in China. At the present ratio India's population, which was 1210 million according to the Census taken early in 2011, will catch up with China's somewhat earlier than is usually expected, around 2022, which is only a decade afterwards.
Putting aside the present ratio of 1.54% for the moment, and if we apply the 17.6% at which India' population increased over the decade 2001 to 2011 to the next decade also, we get 1423.15 million as the figure for 2021, the time of her next Census. In 2011 the ratio of her urban population was 31%, which was 375.1 million, about half that of China's. If 31% still applies in 2021, which is of course doubtful and there are all the reasons to anticipate that it will come closer to China's 51%, we will come to the conclusion that India will have 66 million more of urban population by 2021. It is a very conservative estimate. But even this will be an enormous burden on the existing urban infrastructure and employment opportunities.
Would it be possible to consider where are they likely to come from, and where are they lilely to be?
Yes, when those parts of the Census data are made public, which show the ratio of urban migration to the population increase State-wise, or growth of the major cities, over the past decade, we will be able to discuss those matters. We may also be able to consider the 'push' and 'pull' factors in their latest phase.
What would be important now, however, is to follow Mahatma Gandhi, who repeatedly said that under the British rule the villages were supporting the cities, but in independent India it should be the other way round. In doing so we need not give heed to those of his ideas which are clearly out-dated, like the closed 'village republics', and take only those which are more progressive and benefitting to the rural poor.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Mr.Obama's Military Review and Its Impact on Japan(1)
President Obama announced a new military review on 5 January(US time), 2012. For some reason or other he did it at Pentagon this time, unlike his previous annoucements(see my comment on Bob Woodward's book Obama's Wars, 23 May 2011).
The main point of the annoucement is to change the 'outdated cold war-era systems'. Paraphrasing this the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey, said that 'The two-war paradigm...is a residual of the cold war.' and therefore is going to be abandoned. The policy of fighting on two fronts simultaneously, which reminds us of the German strategist, Alfred Schlieffen, will have no place in the new military arrangement. This inevitably means cut in spending, and it will be introduced in the Army and the Marines.
The US was not able to fight even one single major war recently, let alone two, which is apparent from the unmanageable situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Reducing its military mission is absolutely necessary for the US herself.
But not all the Americans are able to adjust themselves to the reality. After winning the New Hampshire Republican primary five days later, Mr.Mitt Romney criticized that Obama was weakening the US militarily.
Obama on his part, as if anticipating this, said that 'Yes, our military will be leaner, but the world must know that the US is going to maintain our military superiority with armed forces that are agile, flexible and ready for the full range of contingencies and threats.'
But how is this superiority to be deployed in geographical terms? It is in the Asia-Pacific. Said Dempsey, 'Our strategic challenges will largely emanate out of the Pacific region.' Some one was heard to say in the Press Conference that 'China wants to conquor the world.' How it is possible to try to get out of the 'outdated cold war-era systems' but at the same time to entertain this kind of war-like mentality is not easy to understand. After the cold war, the US tried to look for a new enemy, in order to keep its military-industrial complex always in good shape, while creating some formidable ones. It now seems to have come back to the time of the Korean War, when the US forces desperately fought the massive Chinese land forces in the rugged North Korea for months and months, although nobody really thinks of the possibility of the reemergence of those scenes.
There are also several sifnificant changes that have occured since then. One of them is the presence of economically and militarily strong, but politically and culturally silent, Japan, which is firmly allied to the US. How is the new US stance going to affect Japan, and how is Japan going to interact with it?
The main point of the annoucement is to change the 'outdated cold war-era systems'. Paraphrasing this the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey, said that 'The two-war paradigm...is a residual of the cold war.' and therefore is going to be abandoned. The policy of fighting on two fronts simultaneously, which reminds us of the German strategist, Alfred Schlieffen, will have no place in the new military arrangement. This inevitably means cut in spending, and it will be introduced in the Army and the Marines.
The US was not able to fight even one single major war recently, let alone two, which is apparent from the unmanageable situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Reducing its military mission is absolutely necessary for the US herself.
But not all the Americans are able to adjust themselves to the reality. After winning the New Hampshire Republican primary five days later, Mr.Mitt Romney criticized that Obama was weakening the US militarily.
Obama on his part, as if anticipating this, said that 'Yes, our military will be leaner, but the world must know that the US is going to maintain our military superiority with armed forces that are agile, flexible and ready for the full range of contingencies and threats.'
But how is this superiority to be deployed in geographical terms? It is in the Asia-Pacific. Said Dempsey, 'Our strategic challenges will largely emanate out of the Pacific region.' Some one was heard to say in the Press Conference that 'China wants to conquor the world.' How it is possible to try to get out of the 'outdated cold war-era systems' but at the same time to entertain this kind of war-like mentality is not easy to understand. After the cold war, the US tried to look for a new enemy, in order to keep its military-industrial complex always in good shape, while creating some formidable ones. It now seems to have come back to the time of the Korean War, when the US forces desperately fought the massive Chinese land forces in the rugged North Korea for months and months, although nobody really thinks of the possibility of the reemergence of those scenes.
There are also several sifnificant changes that have occured since then. One of them is the presence of economically and militarily strong, but politically and culturally silent, Japan, which is firmly allied to the US. How is the new US stance going to affect Japan, and how is Japan going to interact with it?
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
"Ditch", a Cinema on the anti-Rightist Policy in China
A two-hour HongKong-French-Belgian cinema "Ditch" is on the anti-Rightist movement in China in the mid-1950s. As such it is very gloomy, and in more ways than one.
Most of the two hours are on the life in the 'ditches', meaning in this case caves dug in the yellow soil in the Northwestern China, familiar to those who have seen, directly or indirectly, the life at Yan'an, the HQ of the Communist Party for most of their anti-Japanese, anti-Nationalist war. This is in Kansu Province, still more to the west, which is more arid and bordering the Gobi Desert. It is in winter, with freezing temperature, no precipitation, lots of wild wind.
On top of this background, most of the scenes are those of the life of the ditches, which does not amount much more than starving, with hardly any solid food given in a bowl.
Another common event is dying in bed, mostly during the night. Yes, a death occurs quite often. The dead is tied up, brought to the sandy field, and buried. But can one call it a burial when the body is simply placed on the ground and is covered with just some soil. Sometimes even those bodies are robbed of their clothes which are exchanged for food.
What about labour? Are the ditches not the labour camps? But this not the agricultural season. There is no water available for cultivation(no real ditch to be seen!). Moreover, because of the nation-wide famine, the ration has been cut and the prisoners are told to take more rest.
Yes, they are prisoners. Is there any better way of calling them? Although no figure is given in the cinema, there must have been thousands of them in Kansu alone. Most of them must have said something more or less critical of the party line in the "Let Hundred Flowers Blossom" movement started by the party in April 1956. Encouraged by this, many people put their ideas and criticism forward.
But whether by the original design or by the policy change, the party has decided in the middle of 1957 to call those people "rightist", and to detain them in the labour camps. The concrete example in the cinema is the case of a man who told the party that 'the dictatorship of the proletariat' should be replaced by 'the dictatorship of the whole people', since the former is too narrow a concept. It is a piece of friendly advice, rather than criticism, much less an attack. Left alone he would have been a diligent person, basically loyal to the country in spite of holding the above sort of ideas. It would be a great loss to look at such a person as an enemy, alienate him, put him to hard labour without any compensation and freedom in separation from the family. Unfortunately for China and her people this is what happened. Thousands were labelled 'rightists'. It may be presumed that they are more active, creative and talented people than the average. Hence all the more loss to the country.
The monotony of the cinema is broken by some incidents like the visit of the wife from Shanghai of a man who has breathed his last a few days ago, and the attempted escape of two men. Fortunately there is very little of physical violence throughout.
The cinema ends with a suggestion that most of the survivors, except those who are in danger of dying on the train(!), will be allowed to go home soon, but a new batch is on the way here.
We are reminded, and this is what makes it more gloomy, that this was not the end, but only the beginning, of the huge suffering of the people of China. In that sense the cinema is about an epoch-making period.
Most of the two hours are on the life in the 'ditches', meaning in this case caves dug in the yellow soil in the Northwestern China, familiar to those who have seen, directly or indirectly, the life at Yan'an, the HQ of the Communist Party for most of their anti-Japanese, anti-Nationalist war. This is in Kansu Province, still more to the west, which is more arid and bordering the Gobi Desert. It is in winter, with freezing temperature, no precipitation, lots of wild wind.
On top of this background, most of the scenes are those of the life of the ditches, which does not amount much more than starving, with hardly any solid food given in a bowl.
Another common event is dying in bed, mostly during the night. Yes, a death occurs quite often. The dead is tied up, brought to the sandy field, and buried. But can one call it a burial when the body is simply placed on the ground and is covered with just some soil. Sometimes even those bodies are robbed of their clothes which are exchanged for food.
What about labour? Are the ditches not the labour camps? But this not the agricultural season. There is no water available for cultivation(no real ditch to be seen!). Moreover, because of the nation-wide famine, the ration has been cut and the prisoners are told to take more rest.
Yes, they are prisoners. Is there any better way of calling them? Although no figure is given in the cinema, there must have been thousands of them in Kansu alone. Most of them must have said something more or less critical of the party line in the "Let Hundred Flowers Blossom" movement started by the party in April 1956. Encouraged by this, many people put their ideas and criticism forward.
But whether by the original design or by the policy change, the party has decided in the middle of 1957 to call those people "rightist", and to detain them in the labour camps. The concrete example in the cinema is the case of a man who told the party that 'the dictatorship of the proletariat' should be replaced by 'the dictatorship of the whole people', since the former is too narrow a concept. It is a piece of friendly advice, rather than criticism, much less an attack. Left alone he would have been a diligent person, basically loyal to the country in spite of holding the above sort of ideas. It would be a great loss to look at such a person as an enemy, alienate him, put him to hard labour without any compensation and freedom in separation from the family. Unfortunately for China and her people this is what happened. Thousands were labelled 'rightists'. It may be presumed that they are more active, creative and talented people than the average. Hence all the more loss to the country.
The monotony of the cinema is broken by some incidents like the visit of the wife from Shanghai of a man who has breathed his last a few days ago, and the attempted escape of two men. Fortunately there is very little of physical violence throughout.
The cinema ends with a suggestion that most of the survivors, except those who are in danger of dying on the train(!), will be allowed to go home soon, but a new batch is on the way here.
We are reminded, and this is what makes it more gloomy, that this was not the end, but only the beginning, of the huge suffering of the people of China. In that sense the cinema is about an epoch-making period.
Friday, January 6, 2012
A Happy New Year 2012 !
Let me send my New Year Greetings to you all.
A New Year is celebrated in Japan in various ways. Here is one of them. It is relaying on the public roads between Tokyo and Hakone, a little more than 100km one way, by ten male students each from 20 selected universities situated in Tokyo and surruounding Prefectures. It is held on two days. On the first day, 2 January, five runners from each team relay from Tokyo to Hakone, each running a little more than 20 km. Hakone is a major mountain range about 800 metres high.
On the second day, 3rd, another five from each relay the same route back to Tokyo. The weather is usually fine on these days, and thousands of people are lining up on the road to welcome the runners. Mount Fuji can be seen from many spots on the way. Students from the participating universities bring their school flags and hundreds of them are flying alomost all the way along the route.
While relaying, a runner hands over a cord made of cloth to the next one, who puts it around his neck and runs. This is a peculiar way of relaying in this country, and is called Ekiden.
The TV shows the run in its entirety from the start to the end. You cannot simply ignore it, for, it is a kind of sports, but is probably the most popular open-air show in the country. It is naturally more popular in the Eastern Japan where Hakone is located. In order to participate in the race, many high school boys good at long-distance running aspire to enter some of the promising universities in the Tokyo region. At the same time it is said that the those universities, at least some of them, invite those prospective runners to come to them. Those runners are known throughout the country by means of various competition on the national level. Anyway, while seeing the Hakone-Ekiden on the TV, we feel that another New Year is come.
The 88th competition is just over. Out of the 20, it was Toyo University which has won, with a new record of 10 hours 51 minutes and 36 seconds. They have shortened the previous record by more than 8 minutes. The last, 20th, runner reached the goal more than 50 minutes behind.
Outstanding in the Toyo team was the captain, Mr.Kashiwabara Ryuji. He is particularly good at going up the hills, and has been given the task of running the fifth and the last section on the first day, the mountain section, for four consecutive years. He has made a record this year, renewing his own. He is known as Yamanokami, literally the god of the mountain, but colloquially meaning 'wife'.
He is from nuclear-affected Fukushima Prefecture. Asked how he came out of the uphill(literally) task, he said, not much, it was only for about an hour.
After four years he is graduating this March. He wants to become a marathon runner, and we wish him well. We also wish to see someone like him running the mountain section the next year.
A New Year is celebrated in Japan in various ways. Here is one of them. It is relaying on the public roads between Tokyo and Hakone, a little more than 100km one way, by ten male students each from 20 selected universities situated in Tokyo and surruounding Prefectures. It is held on two days. On the first day, 2 January, five runners from each team relay from Tokyo to Hakone, each running a little more than 20 km. Hakone is a major mountain range about 800 metres high.
On the second day, 3rd, another five from each relay the same route back to Tokyo. The weather is usually fine on these days, and thousands of people are lining up on the road to welcome the runners. Mount Fuji can be seen from many spots on the way. Students from the participating universities bring their school flags and hundreds of them are flying alomost all the way along the route.
While relaying, a runner hands over a cord made of cloth to the next one, who puts it around his neck and runs. This is a peculiar way of relaying in this country, and is called Ekiden.
The TV shows the run in its entirety from the start to the end. You cannot simply ignore it, for, it is a kind of sports, but is probably the most popular open-air show in the country. It is naturally more popular in the Eastern Japan where Hakone is located. In order to participate in the race, many high school boys good at long-distance running aspire to enter some of the promising universities in the Tokyo region. At the same time it is said that the those universities, at least some of them, invite those prospective runners to come to them. Those runners are known throughout the country by means of various competition on the national level. Anyway, while seeing the Hakone-Ekiden on the TV, we feel that another New Year is come.
The 88th competition is just over. Out of the 20, it was Toyo University which has won, with a new record of 10 hours 51 minutes and 36 seconds. They have shortened the previous record by more than 8 minutes. The last, 20th, runner reached the goal more than 50 minutes behind.
Outstanding in the Toyo team was the captain, Mr.Kashiwabara Ryuji. He is particularly good at going up the hills, and has been given the task of running the fifth and the last section on the first day, the mountain section, for four consecutive years. He has made a record this year, renewing his own. He is known as Yamanokami, literally the god of the mountain, but colloquially meaning 'wife'.
He is from nuclear-affected Fukushima Prefecture. Asked how he came out of the uphill(literally) task, he said, not much, it was only for about an hour.
After four years he is graduating this March. He wants to become a marathon runner, and we wish him well. We also wish to see someone like him running the mountain section the next year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)