Japan and the DPRK

     We have reached our final question, for the moment, which is ; what is Japan going to do with the DPRK?

     This question has already been taken care of by the 2002 Declaration at Pyongyang of Japan's PM Koizumi and Korea's General Secretary Kim(the present Chairman's father), which aims at the normalization of the relations between the two.  But that has not been followed so far.

     The reasons are obvious and we do not have to repeat them here.  But, needless to say, the transformation of the Ceasefire into the Peace Treaty, coupled with a new politico-diplomatic superstructure will greatly change the atmosphere.  The remaining problem is the political will on the part of the Japanese.  We should at least start probing/sounding them as quickly as possible.  On what?  Investment in the grass-root basic infrastructure and public health plus compensation will take precedence.  For that, both sides should open a small diplomatic office in each other's capital city for intense negotiation and to set a timetable, say for two years.

      

Toward a Peaceful Far East

     As far as an Infantry Division and other US forces are in South Korea, and a Marines Division and other US forces are in Japan, both of these countries are bound to function as the US bases.  It is particularly so in the case of Japan, as the Peace Treaty together with the Security Treaty were signed during the Korean War itself, enabling the whole country to be used as the US bases to support the UN forces under the US command in the Korean Peninsula.  The legal framework has remained as it was.  Both of these Treaties with Japan were signed right in the middle of the Korean War and were meant for the anti-DPRK and anti-Chinese purposes.

     Suppose an ASEAN-like superstructure comes into sight in the East Asia.  What are the uses of the US Infantry or the Marines?  Is there any need for the US forces to defend South Korea or Japan, and against whom, let alone to move to other places to fight new enemies?  The main US objective when having a Peace Treaty with Japan in 1951 was to find ways and means of maintaining and freely using their military bases in Japan, thus to continue the situation of occupation of Japan.  That need has disappeared now, or is going to before long.  Where is the need, for example, for constructing the gigantic Henoko Air Base at Okinawa, which is said to serve for 200 years?

     It may sound idealistic, but this is no longer the time for the Security Treaties and the foreign bases.  These are the things which are blocking the countries like Japan and South Korea from becoming really independent ones.  It is many years now since the DPRK has been free from foreign troops and foreign bases and in that sense she is far ahead of others like Japan.

     For the Japanese the foremost question would be where is Japan going to place itself in the new Far East, particularly in connection with the DPRK.  We will talk about it tomorrow. 

       

From the Peace Treaty to What?

     Suppose the terms of the Peace Treaty are agreed to, who are going to sign it?  By definition the US and North Korea to begin with.  What about China?  It was not China as the state, that is the PRC, that signed the Ceasefire.  But China cannot be outside.  And Russia, and Japan.  And of course South Korea, even though it did not sign the Ceasefire either.  All the countries composing the Six-party Conference should be the participants.  Then what?  What sort of organization should be built upon the terms of the Treaty?  It would be desirable to describe them in the Treaty itself.  It should be something like, say, NATO?  Oh, no.  It should be, if we are to select something out of the existing ones at present, much more like ASEAN.

     But here opinions will get divided, and very sharply.  It will be on the US forces now in the Far East.  What will happen to them?  At the moment, 28,500 US troops are stationed in South Korea.  19,200 of them are the Army, mostly the Second Division.  They are usually not on move, but are stationed there to be ready to fight on the spot itself.  After the Treaty, are they still needed there, to fight the DPRK Army?

     Similarly 47,050 US troops are in Japan.  A great difference is that 20,700 of them are Marines, mostly the Third Marines Division.  They are not there to defend Okinawa, their major bases, or Japan as a whole.  They are there as a stepping stone, always ready to move elsewhere to fight whoever is the enemy.  After the Treaty are they still needed there, for jumping to somewhere else?  For my answer see tomorrow.  

From Ceasefire to Peace Treaty

     In his speech on 23 June, Mr. Onaga Takeshi, the Governor of Okinawa Prefecture, said that the ongoing construction of a huge air force base for the US at Henoko, Okinawa, will not serve any peaceful purpose and goes against the present stream of things we are watching in East Asia.  He further said that in the coming years Okinawa should play the role of a bridge between Japan and Asia.  What then are the present streams of things flowing?

     First of all, it is a great possibility that as the result of the two summits, one between President Moon and Chairman Kim on 27 April, the other President Trump and Chairman Kim on 12 June, the ceasefire, yes, only a ceasefire, which has been the legal framework covering the whole of the Korean Peninsula for the past 65 years ever since 1953, may change into a peace treaty.

     Indeed the Korean War which was started in 1950, no matter who did it, was a decisive factor in making the Cold War a permanent phenomenon in not only the East Asia but almost the whole world.  Take Japan, for instance, which seems to be outside the involvement of the war.  The conclusion of the Peace Treaty of 1951, and the simultaneously of the Security Treaty, would not have been possible without the war.  And those Treaties themselves became an important factor in conditioning the situation in the Far East.  We will look at it tomorrow.   

Emerging Trend for Peace in East Asia

     On 23 June we commemorate one thing every year.  It is concerned with Okinawa Islands.  It is not at all a happy occasion.  It is supposed to be the day when organized fighting by the Japanese on these islands, particularly the Main Island, came to an end in 1945.  Japan surrendered two months afterwards.

     In the tragic and disastrous fighting, for the Japanese, nearly 100, 000 soldiers and about an equal number of private citizens lost their lives.  The dead on the US side was 12, 520.  Japan did not try to defend the Islands with any definite plan or objective.  It was simply to gain time, the time to fortify the main Honshu and Kyushu Islands against the expected US and the Allied landing.  Okinawa had been victimized in that sense.  As a matter of fact it is said that the US forces were planning to land Kyushu sometime in November.

     It is 73 years since then, and there are still many and large-scale US military bases there on these Islands, most of the US bases in Japan.  They are there in accordance with the Japan-US Security Treaty.  Why is this necessity?  We have to talk about the Korean War to explain why, equally a tragic and disastrous war which began on this very day, 25 June, 1950, and is still casting a long shadow over East Asia.  Let me please postpone it till tomorrow to discuss the present-day East Asia.