A Step Forward, From Cancun to Durban

The COP 16 was recently held at Cancun, Mexico, to cope with the coming termination of the Kyoto Protocol(KP) at the end of 2012. The KP was signed at the COP 3 in 1997and took effect in 2005. Under the KP, Japan, for example, has to reduce her emission of global warming gas by 6% compared to 1990, the standard year, by 2012. It was the first international statutory agreement concerning a crucial aspect of sustainable development. Its major flaw is, with the withdrawal of the US and the rapid increase in the emission by countries like China, the total emission of the countries covered is only 27% of the global total. China is the top emitter, having overtaken the US in 2007, and is followed by the US, Russia and India, and Japan. They are all major coal consumers. The increase in total emission in the world in 2010 was estimated to be 3%, but the ratio for China was 8%, and that for India was 6.2%. Both of them are demanding that the emission be calculated on the per capita basis.
At Cancun Japan insisted that KP should be replaced by a new agreement in which all those countries would be partners. Easier said than done. Has she worked hard to persuade them to do so? Unfortunately she could not present any compromise alternative to prevent the conference from coming to nothing. But others were keener, and in the end the COP 16 concluded that the industrial countries should curtail their emission by 25-40% against the standard year by 2020, the developing countries would start limiting their emission then, and the details would be worked out at COP 17 at Durban, South Africa, to be held in November to December 2011.
Japan pledged, in a Prime Minister's UN speech, to cut 25% by 2020, but it was conditional on others' participation. A business association has recently proposed a 15% cut on a voluntary basis.
If you look at what sectors are the major emitters in Japan, you will find that, of the 20 leading emitting enterprises, 11 are power plants and 9 are steel plants, heavily dependent on imported coal as there was a hike in oil prices. Japan is the largest coal importer in the world, with more than half of the coal coming from Australia, and the amount of import is increasing. There is room for restricting the use of coal, and enhancing the use of renewable energy. And this writer is sure that most of our people would gladly put up with less heating in winter, less cooling in summer, and all that sort of inconveniences.