US Withdrawal Will Begin Soon, But Is Everything OK?

This writer was at Mashhad, Northeastern Iran, waiting for a bus taking us to the Afghan border. It was way back in August 1979. We, myself and two boys in their early teens, my son and his good friend, had started from Athens, travelled through Greece, Turkey and Iran, and were hoping to go through Afghanistan and Pakistan, and finally to reach India. We were, however, persuaded by the Iranians at the bus terminal not to proceed to Afghanistan as it would be a perilous journey and was becoming more so day by day. We followed their advice, no other alternative, took another bus for Zahedan, Southeastern Iran, thus bypassing Afghanistan, and came into Pakistan Baloochistan via its southwestern check-post. This was shortly before the Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan at the end of that year.
Then it was at Calcutta(Kolkata), India, shortly after the Soviet invasion. One evening I switched on the Radio to find myself listening to the voice of a well-known Indian historian discussing the Soviet move. He was normally considered to be a leftist as to the method of his research, and maybe that is why he talked about how the British attempt to conquer Afghanistan in the previous century ended in failure, instead of outrightly criticizing the invasion. But the message to the Soviets was clear. Looking back it was even prophetic, and the Red Army withdrew in 1989. The US should have learned the lesson of history when it went to war in 2001. The Twin Tower tragedy was one thing, how to deal with it was another. The US also should have carefully studied why she had so much alienated the Muslim world. This was a political question not capable of being solved militarily.
And now it is the turn of President Obama to preside over another withdrawal from Afghanistan. He announced on 23 June that 'We have turned the corner', the withdrawal would begin in July, the next month, and by the end of September 2012 33,000 forces would withdraw.
It is said that the decision came after a month-long strategy review. One would be reminded of the previous 2009 review at the White House which took a much longer time and which I have described in these columns on 23 May. On this occasion also, as on the previous one, the military were not satisfied with the President's decision, saying that the size was more than expected and it would involve 'more risk'. They usually want to use both manpower and firepower in their possession.
In terms of the previous decision, and particularly after the removal of the Al-Qaeda leader, the withdrawal is welcome. Particularly so for the American people whom Obama promised to divert the military expenditure, or a part of it, for the 'nation-building' in the US.
But for us the Japanese the withdrawal will solve nothing. We will see it the next time.