Urban Population in China and India

China has made it clear on 17 January that her urban population has for the first time overtaken the rural population during 2011. In absolute figures, her urban population as of the year end was 690.79 million, the rural population was 656.56 million, making the total 1347.35 million. The annual increase was 6.44 million, and the proportion of the urban population was 51%.
The BBC reporter who broadcast the news also said that now that the major population movement had been over in China, the next such movement would be seen in India. Is it true? Or rather, it must be true, but on what scale?
It used to be said for some time that India's population was increasing at the ratio of 2% per annum, but her urban population was increasing at 3%, that of her large cities at 4%, and of urban slums at 5%. As far as the total population was concerned, however, the ratio is now down to 1.54%(2008). But that is still about three times higher than in China. At the present ratio India's population, which was 1210 million according to the Census taken early in 2011, will catch up with China's somewhat earlier than is usually expected, around 2022, which is only a decade afterwards.
Putting aside the present ratio of 1.54% for the moment, and if we apply the 17.6% at which India' population increased over the decade 2001 to 2011 to the next decade also, we get 1423.15 million as the figure for 2021, the time of her next Census. In 2011 the ratio of her urban population was 31%, which was 375.1 million, about half that of China's. If 31% still applies in 2021, which is of course doubtful and there are all the reasons to anticipate that it will come closer to China's 51%, we will come to the conclusion that India will have 66 million more of urban population by 2021. It is a very conservative estimate. But even this will be an enormous burden on the existing urban infrastructure and employment opportunities.
Would it be possible to consider where are they likely to come from, and where are they lilely to be?
Yes, when those parts of the Census data are made public, which show the ratio of urban migration to the population increase State-wise, or growth of the major cities, over the past decade, we will be able to discuss those matters. We may also be able to consider the 'push' and 'pull' factors in their latest phase.
What would be important now, however, is to follow Mahatma Gandhi, who repeatedly said that under the British rule the villages were supporting the cities, but in independent India it should be the other way round. In doing so we need not give heed to those of his ideas which are clearly out-dated, like the closed 'village republics', and take only those which are more progressive and benefitting to the rural poor.