Monday, February 27, 2012

The State of the Japanese Economy

This being the beginning of a new year, and also the end of a fiscal one(April to March) for Japan, a series of latest figures on her economy has been out recently. Let us pick up some of them.
Japan's GDP for October to December 2011 registered a decline of 2.3% on an annual basis. This is due to the decline of export by 11.9%, while the domestic demand increased by 0.2%. Japan is not such a trade-dependent country. Her import-export ratio is 30%, compared to, for instance, Germany's 70%. With the Yen appreciation and the world-wide economic difficulties, it would be all the more desirable to depend more on the domestic market than before. For this purpose, it would be imperative to boost the household economy which accounts for 60% of the GDP, and also to protect the small and medium-scale industrial and commercial sector which accounts for 70% of the employment.
But the reality is that take-home income has decreased. In the 20 years from 1990 to 2010, now known as the lost two decades, the per household annual disposable income, and the actual consumption expenditure, have declined, from 529 to 504, and from 398 to 370, respectively(Yen 10,000). If those figures give the impression that the decline was not much, it is because both of them kept rising until they reached the peak figures of 596 and 429, respectively, in 1997, and then started dropping. So the drop since then has been quite sharp. One important reason for the drop, particularly for the latter, was the raising of the consumption tax(Vat) from 3 to 5%in '97. It was a shattering blow on the recovering economy then.
We will look into the important disparities among the working population. In 2011, non-regular workers accounted for 35.2% of the total employees, the highest so far, and still on the increase. 19.9% of male employees and 54.7% female employees belong to this category. Their working status is unstable and their wages are low compared to the regular employees. There are wage disparities between women and men. Not only that. Their presence in such a large number, as something of an industrial reserve army, makes the position of the regular employees unstable and their wages low.
The government wants to hike the consumption tax, first to 8%, and then to 10% in the near future. It would be destructive to the economy. As the result of the previous hike in '97, all the other tax revenues put together went down as much as by 25% from '96 to 2010, though you cannot say it is all due to this hike. Still some experts do anticipate a fall in the total taxation. Besides the government has decided to cut the salaries of their employees by 8%. It would be better if the government raise the income tax on the highest bracket, from the present 40% to 75%that used to be before, thus making it more progressive, which is how it should be. If some such people-friendly measures are taken, we can safely talk of doing away with the consumption tax altogether. Also we may talk of coping with the high cost in medical insurance, treatment, aging people care, or education.
Finally, I am worried that our farmland is slowly going into disuse, thereby making ourselves more dependent on imported food. I would like to see Japan play some positive role whenever there is danger of mass starvation on this earth. Japan has that capacity as she can produce much more rice than the domestic demand. But the TPP is casting a dark shadow over the future of our entire agriculture.

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