In the past two Elections to the Lower House of Japan, a strong wind was blowing in favour of one of the parties. Thus, the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP) won the overwhelming majority in 2005, and the Democratic Party(DP) in their turn got a majority in 2009. On both occasions we the voters could feel the shape of the things to come on the election day and afterwards.
But not this time. No wind was blowing, no boom was taking place in favour of some one. And yet the LDP got 294 out of 480, 175 more than the last time, while the DP got a comparable 173 less, a colossal damage.
These 480 are divided into two categories in the election procedure. There are 300 single-member constituencies, and 11 geographical blocks to elect certain number each totalling 180, on the proportional basis. It is in the former category that the LDP has swept the scene. It is the magic, undemocratic character, of the single-member constituencies. They have got 237 out of 300 here, but only 57 of the 180, with 28% of the votes, in the other category. Surprisingly they have lost more or less 2 million votes each in both the categories.
Hardly anybody is expecting them to do a lot of good for the people. The morning paper today, 19 December, reports an opinion poll saying that 81% of the respondents think the LDP's victory is due to the disappointment with the DP Government while mere 7% say it is because of the support for the LDP's policies. It is, therefore, not a "Yes" vote. It is a strong "No" vote. The voting ratio also dropped to an all-time low of 59%, a sign that the voters were perplexed.
Once in the saddle, however, the LDP will try to implement some of their policies. In my previous blog I have discussed the Constitutional question today as I see it. The LDP's new Prime Minister designate, Mr. Abe Shinzo, is already talking of revising, not Article 9 for now, but Article 96, which defines the process of a Constitutional amendment. An amendment, in order to be placed before a referendum, it says, should be passed by a two-third majority of all the members in each House.
The LDP alone is short of it in the Lower House, but there is no dearth of parties willing to collaborate on this with them. Among them is the newly formed "Restoration Party" which can be placed even to the right of the LDP, which is sufficiently rightist in itself, and will try to pull the LDP in that direction. But those forces do not reach that majority in the Upper House. In this sense the next Elections to the Upper House, electing half of its members, scheduled six months ahead, has got a very significant meaning.
But who knows what will happen in Japan's fluid political landscape in the meantime? This time, besides the Restorationists, some other parties also have been formed, trying to take advantage of the weakening DP position. Not all of them have a solid core policy. In fact many of their members were deserters from the DP. It can also be said that behind all this bubble of the parties there is a statutory system of the governmental expenditure to support the parties, and any group with five or more MPs is entitled to a substantial sum of money.
There is no viable opposition? Under the circumstances of the political fluidity the Communist Party of Japan(CPJ) may be the only one worth the name of opposition, if not as yet quite viable. They have got only eight seats, one less than before, obtaining 3.7 million votes(6%) in the proportional representation part. None of them has been elected in the single-member constituency. Interestingly they are the only one which has not shown interest in getting the money from the government, according to their political philosophy, and as such looks more solid and independent of the temptation of the money.
But not this time. No wind was blowing, no boom was taking place in favour of some one. And yet the LDP got 294 out of 480, 175 more than the last time, while the DP got a comparable 173 less, a colossal damage.
These 480 are divided into two categories in the election procedure. There are 300 single-member constituencies, and 11 geographical blocks to elect certain number each totalling 180, on the proportional basis. It is in the former category that the LDP has swept the scene. It is the magic, undemocratic character, of the single-member constituencies. They have got 237 out of 300 here, but only 57 of the 180, with 28% of the votes, in the other category. Surprisingly they have lost more or less 2 million votes each in both the categories.
Hardly anybody is expecting them to do a lot of good for the people. The morning paper today, 19 December, reports an opinion poll saying that 81% of the respondents think the LDP's victory is due to the disappointment with the DP Government while mere 7% say it is because of the support for the LDP's policies. It is, therefore, not a "Yes" vote. It is a strong "No" vote. The voting ratio also dropped to an all-time low of 59%, a sign that the voters were perplexed.
Once in the saddle, however, the LDP will try to implement some of their policies. In my previous blog I have discussed the Constitutional question today as I see it. The LDP's new Prime Minister designate, Mr. Abe Shinzo, is already talking of revising, not Article 9 for now, but Article 96, which defines the process of a Constitutional amendment. An amendment, in order to be placed before a referendum, it says, should be passed by a two-third majority of all the members in each House.
The LDP alone is short of it in the Lower House, but there is no dearth of parties willing to collaborate on this with them. Among them is the newly formed "Restoration Party" which can be placed even to the right of the LDP, which is sufficiently rightist in itself, and will try to pull the LDP in that direction. But those forces do not reach that majority in the Upper House. In this sense the next Elections to the Upper House, electing half of its members, scheduled six months ahead, has got a very significant meaning.
But who knows what will happen in Japan's fluid political landscape in the meantime? This time, besides the Restorationists, some other parties also have been formed, trying to take advantage of the weakening DP position. Not all of them have a solid core policy. In fact many of their members were deserters from the DP. It can also be said that behind all this bubble of the parties there is a statutory system of the governmental expenditure to support the parties, and any group with five or more MPs is entitled to a substantial sum of money.
There is no viable opposition? Under the circumstances of the political fluidity the Communist Party of Japan(CPJ) may be the only one worth the name of opposition, if not as yet quite viable. They have got only eight seats, one less than before, obtaining 3.7 million votes(6%) in the proportional representation part. None of them has been elected in the single-member constituency. Interestingly they are the only one which has not shown interest in getting the money from the government, according to their political philosophy, and as such looks more solid and independent of the temptation of the money.
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