Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Japan's Upper House Elections, 21 July 2013

     On 21 July, last Sunday, a typical summer day in this country, hot, sunny and humid, elections to the Upper House(House of Councillors) were held, and 53% of the electors went to cast their vote(including those who had voted prior to this day).  The House consists of 242 members, and half of it, 121, are elected every three years.  48 of them are elected on the basis of party-wise proportional votes, and the rest, 73, come from Prefectural constituencies.  Each of the 47 Prefectures has got its quota according to its population, ranging from Tokyo's five, Osaka's and Kanagawa's four each to as many as 31 single-member Prefectures.
     Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his LDP(Liberal Democratic Party), who had been in office on the basis of the majority in the Lower House, tried to convince the voters saying that it would stabilize politics if they could also get the majority in the Upper House.  In so doing, they stressed that during the six months of their government the share prices went up by 50%, and the export increased by the devaluation of the Yen.  They were not as keen to discuss the controversial issues like the reopening of the nuclear power plants, Constitutional amendments, joining the TPP, or ways and means of improving relations with our neighbours, which were likely to generate anxiety among the voters.  Even on the issue of the economic recovery, they tended to avoid discussing the impending hike in the consumption tax, or the stagnant employment and wage-level situation.  They have tried to assure the voters that the profit which the big enterprises seem to be amassing at present is going to trickle down to the not-so-well-to-do in due course("Abenomics").
     What were the results?  It ended up in the LDP's complete victory.  They got 65, and if we add the number of members whose term will come three years later, their total strength comes up to 115.  If the Komei Party, their coalition partner, is also taken into account, their combined strength is 135 out of the total of 242, holding the absolute majority.
     The elections have shown that there are effectively six parties in all to be reckoned with in Japan's politics, including the above two government parties.  Out of the four in the opposition, the Democratic Party, which was the government party until six month back and had held the majority in the Upper House till now, has met a devastating defeat, getting only 17 and totalling 59 in all.  No one is in a position to say anything definite on the Restoration Party and Your Party, who have so much depended on just one personality each.
     That leaves the Communist Party of Japan.  It is a very interesting entity.  It is, as I described on the occasion of their great advance in the recent Tokyo Assembly Elections on 23 June, four weeks ago, the only functioning party of that name in all the capitalist countries.  This time also, they have increased their seats from three to eight, making it eleven altogether.  Still a very small number.  But when they say that the LDP-CPJ is the main axis of political confrontation in today's Japan, nobody can deny that it contains much truth.
     The Asahi  newspaper carried an interesting opinion poll on 24 July, conducted immediately after the elections.  It shows that almost as many look at the LDP policy with greater anxiety than expectation as those who do so with greater expectation than anxiety.  Only 17% think that the LDP won for its own sake, and 66% say it is because the opposition parties were not attractive. On the  whole the respondents felt that the Abenomics would not bring higher wages and more employment.  They were against the reopening of the nuclear plants, the hike in the consumption tax, and negative on amending the Constitution.
     Would it not be more proper, then, to call the LDP government a minority government?      
        

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